🇦🇺 FLEMINGTON ~ DERBY DAY 🥷
#JIGRACING #DERBYDAY #DAYOFDAYS #GOATDAY #THECREAM #BIGDAWGSONLY #VALUE #LETSGETEM #WHOSGETTINEM #WEGETTINEM #TOPSPORT #PIRANHAMEDIA #RACKEM 🥷👊
Welcome to Australia's undisputed, 'DAY OF ALL DAYS' - DERBY DAY!! 🏇 🇦🇺
AND.... What a card it is!!! ...
This is Springs biggest dance. No pigs allowed. Class Only. A Punters Buffett.
And where else would you want it, but fabulous Flemington. The world's best race course.
So is it a Punters Xmas? Or a Punters nightmare -Derby Day??
Who cares, clear your schedule, pour yourself a frothie, put your feet up and Lesss Gohhhh! #IT'SDERBYDAY #STOPIT 🥷👊
P.S- Piss OFF Rain #EnoughAlready🌧️😐🙏
🆘🚧- (We have based this form around racing on a Soft 6-7 track. If we end up racing on a Heavy 8-10 surface, well there goes 30-40 hours of my time this week 😐🖕)
🌐 RACE 1- G3, CARBINE CLUB, 1600m 🌐
⭐#12 PUNGO win ($3.4)
⭐#4 THE FORTUNE TELLER ew ($9)
⭐#13 MY BROTHERS KEEPER ew ($41)
⭐#3 LIBERTY STEPS ($17)
The first on the card is always a cracking way too kick of Derby Day, with the 3YOs lining up in the G3- Carbine Club over the Flemington mile...
A lot of these 3YO's are backing up after running very well in the G1 Caulfield Guineas a fortnight back...
A Guineas year, where only 1.5 lengths seperated the first 11- runners across the line 😳....
Is it the right form for this? It's certainly not form we should be ignoring, but Id be a tad cautious thinking it's the 'only' form we need to focus on, in this race to find the winner...?
There is multiple winning chances in this.
Even the rank outsider in the field #13 MY BROTHERS KEEPER ($41) cant be written off.
He is a genuine flukers chance at huge odds to bob up here. He's no mug.
The fact that he comes through a moderate Echuca Maiden on debut, understably looks stratospheres apart from Caulfield Guineas form on paper, BUT before dismissing him, I would just run your eyes over that run, before automatically putting a pen through him in this.
While he's still a big, raw, unfurnished lump of a thing, it was hard not to be impressed about the way he loped across the Echuca turf on debut like a baby Giraffe, gobbling them up in a couple of bounds in a manner of a horse who will win much better races in time.
He's certainly not the furnished product the big boy... Far from it actually.... But a Top 4 finish isn't beyond him here. He looks a very progressive type
#12 PUNGO ($3.4) is all the chat since fields came out, and they certainly haven't forgotten to back him in early markets.
He looked impressive last start and most importantly, he backed it up on the clock, reeling off some of the better sectionals of the entire meeting on the day.
Not bad for a horse only having his 2nd career start. If he steam rolls them here, none of us should be too shocked.
It should come as no surprise to anyone, if yet another Sydney 3YO has decided to venture south of the border to feast on Victoria's ' B-Grade 3YO's' this season? Why wouldn't they?
They've been doing it all spring the NSW-3YO's with ridiculous ease and I highly doubt they've finished playing with there food just yet.
The fact that Jmac and Waller also team up on him, would hardly dent your confidence in backing the horse either... They are a lethal combination. Here, there...... and well, pretty much anywhere.
So if they continue to jump out of trees and want to back this horse race day, then swinging off the nearest branch with them, will likely work in your favor..
#4 THE FORTUNE TELLER ($9) is capable of blowing them all away (if he doesn't beat himself)
I also like the jockey change with a strong jockey in Johnny Allen taking back over... He needs to be stood over this colt.
He was ridden far too close in the Guineas last start. Far too close.
To think he was only beaten just over a length in the end, was in reality, quite remarkable. He arguably should of won??
(Even if 7 other horses in the Guineas could of made similiar cases or claims)
He's a highly talented, yet immature colt, that forever wants to over do it and throw his races away. (He's a Colty rogue)
While you are certainly taking him on trust if you back him, dismissing his chances would be foolish.
He just needs to settle early and not cook his own lid in the run... If he can, then look out... He will scare the life out of these. He has a devastating turn of foot on him.
#3 LIBERTY STEPS ($17) drew poorly first up, and didn't enjoy the best of runs in transit throughout...
He could improve very sharply here 2nd up, where as many of these have already had their Grand finals in the past fortnight.
His run over 1500m in QLD when getting within under 3 lens from horses like Derby Favorite SHARP N SMART also reads well for a race like this. Keep him very safe.
🔮To view #13 MY BROTHERS KEEPER impressive finale on debut, click on the link below.
🌐 RACE 2 - ARCHER STAKES, 2500m 🌐
⭐#8 SUREFIRE ew ($4)
Not a big fan of the race. But with the scratching of MAKRAM, it now looks a lovely race for #8 SUREFIRE.
He's a little warrior this bloke. He's had a terrific prep and career for that matter. You'd love to own him.
Once again, he was gallant as ever in the Geelong Cup, when 2nd behind EMISSARY.
His run two back in the G1 TURNBULL on this track was also full of merit, when only really getting warm late on, when the race was all over...
With 5 solid runs under his belt this time in, out to 2500m, rock hard fit, JMac, 55kgs, a favorable draw and a touch of class on his side..... Well- he's going to take some holding out in this isn't he!?.... He ticks too many boxes. Clear one to beat.
🌐 RACE 3- RISING FAST STAKES -1200m 🌐
⭐#7 JAMAEA ew ($12)
⭐#14 MELBA STORM ew ($21)
⭐#8 TRIPLE MISSILE ew ($7)
🆘- (JAMAEA needs a Soft 6-7 surface or better. Or NO BET)
Yet another great race, where you could make strong winning cases for multiple runners here.
Pretty keen on #7 JAMAEA ($12) each way in this...
She's a quality mare this girl and she looks extremely well placed for mine..
She draws 11, which is rarely a disadvantage up the Flemington straight, and with a hot early tempo likely on up front to springboard off, she is right in this.
The one BIG concern that hangs over her, is whether we are racing on a severly wet track...
She needs at least a Soft 6-7 or better to excel and if it gets to a Heavy track, then her chances are most likely over. 🤢
Her past two runs on good decks in Sydney, have been eye catching runs behind arguably better stock than she takes on here.
The form from those races has not only been proven to be very good and franked on multiple occasions, but proven to be the right type of form to bring south of the border and strike! (Surprise Surprise!)
If Schofield can drop her out of the gates, curl her up, grab the right back, do no work early, then look to be angling her into clear air, enabling her to go through her gears uninterrupted, she can blow these out with her superior turn of foot! (She just needs a decent surface)
#14 MELBA STORM ($21) is absolutely airborne this time in for Tom Dabernig. She's in rare form this mare and handles all track conditions ☑️
With only 54kgs on his back, she shouldn't be dismissed here at a big price!
Once these type of mares find form, they generally hold it... She can win.
#8 TRIPLE MISSILE ($7) was very good first up, when launching home from the back at Caulfield with a big 'Flashing Light' on his lid!
He draws 12, which won't effect his get back, run on pattern, here up the straight.
He fires 2nd up, 1 from 1 at the track, he's very well in at the weights (54.5kgs), has very good soft track stats and is more than capable of unleashing a big finale here.
I think he is the likely horse the punters will gravitate too race day.
He just needs things to pan out and work in his favor with his racing pattern, but it is hard to not see him figuring in the finish.
🌐 RACE 4-G2, WAKEFUL STAKES 2000m 🌐
⭐#8 AS TIME GOES BY ew ($4.8)
⭐#3 SO DAZZLING ew ($9)
⭐#10 QUEEN AIR ew ($10)
Not a race I'm real keen to play in, but an intriguing one none the less with half of these fillies likely to back up in next Thursdays G1 Oaks.
I think there are 5 winning chances in the race.( Numbers 8,3,1,10 and 13)
#8 AS TIME GOES BY ($4.8) has always been a filly I've had a bit of time for and filly that seems to have a sense of timing about her coming into this.
While this is her first time over the 2000m, she gives every indication she will relish the step up in distance.
'Banjong' Benny sticking with her is also a positive and from gate 1, where she should do no work in running.
If she can be saved up for as long as possible in the straight, before having one big run at them late on, then she posseses a sharper turn of foot than these.
#3 SO DAZZLING ($9) is going very well, rock hard fit, handles all conditions and the trip poses no concerns. She is a must in all quin/tri etc...
#1 JENNY JEROME ($4.2) dons the same silks as a certain stable mate of hers, that we saw have an near identical preparation last year. (DOUCEUR).
Paddy Payne is a genuis at peaking these young stayers on GF day, so a sharp spike in form from her in this, leading into the Oaks Thursday should come as no shock.
#10 QUEEN AIR ($10)- (Big run last time!) & #13 WHISPERING LADY ($18) - (Never saw clear air in straight/strong through and past line) are the other two legimate winning chances worth entertaining and throwing in exotics.
🌐 RACE 5- LINLITHGOW STAKES, 1400m 🌐
⭐#15 PRIDE OF JENNI ew ($8)
⭐#6 IRONCLAD ew ($16)
⭐#3 THE INFERNO ($19)
⭐#7 TUURATH ($5)
#15 PRIDE OF JENNI ($8) gets in very well at the weights here with 53kgs and draws softly with marble 1.
I thought she was very good last start all things considering.
She drew 14 on that occasion, was tardy out of the gates, then had her ears scrubbed off to lead, before getting there, and then wanting to overrace. It was far from a pretty watch...
Too then only be run down by two smart ones in CHAIN OF LIGHTNING & PALAISPAIN by under 2 lens was a big effort.
From Gate 1 here, she should either lead these off a moderate tempo, or take the drop just behind the old boy STREETS OF AVALON if he's hellbent on taking it up....
She can take a sit just off him in any case and doesn't have to lead them.
#6 IRONCLAD ($16) also sparks interest here at a price.
He is a dangerous horse fresh this bloke and if he arrives here feeling well about himself, then he needs to be kept very safe and respected.
I loved his win first up last campaign in Adelaide at Stakes level, when ridden arrogantly and disposing of them like a class horse that he is....
He left MANHATTAN TIMES in his wake on that occasion, who was in very very good form at the time..
#3 THE INFERNO ($19) is a frustrating horse..... A once reliable conveience, can now only be taken on trust at best.
AND while it was EASY to put a pen through his trainer for good, I'm still a tad reluctant to write the horse off so easily- 'Just yet anyway'
He really lost his way last prep, but there were good signs first up in a race where he had legimate excuses....
The step up to 1400 poses no problems.. He's a G1 winner over 1600m.
Can his best efforts blow these off the park?? 10000%....
Would he still be unbeaten and most likely have pocketed $6-7M in prize money had he stayed in Singapore like he should of?? 1000000000000%!!!
Is he the same horse he was 18 months ago? Not even close.
🌐 RACE 6-G1,COOLMORE STUD STAKES 🌐
⭐#6 BUENOS NOCHES ew ($8)
⭐#8 ECONOMICS ew ($13)
⭐#4 LOFTY STRIKE ew ($21)
Wow!!!! What a race... 😳.. You won't know which way to look here...
A crack field of 3YO sprinters steaming up the straight with a hell of a lot more at stake than just the $2M on offer in Prize money.
For the colts in the race, a win here all but confirms a stud contract and values them anywhere upwards of $20M AUD.... 😳...
There's a lot on the line!
I've been with #6 BUENOS NOCHES ($8) since day one and I can't see why I would want to jump ship now.
He's a serious colt this horse and went within a bound of knocking off subsequent Everest winner GIGA KICK last start...
Find me a better form line than that 'ANYWHERE' in the country and I'm happy to listen.. ?
Throw in the fact that he's now had two experiences up the Flemington straight, he is open to more improvement in my view.
Drawing out in 15, enables him to settle off the back of the speed, save him up, pick the lane with the clearest air out wide and let him unleash his big booming finale we already know he possesses!!
Would #8 ECONOMICS ($13) be such big odds if he wasn't sensationally scratched at the barriers last start in the Blue Sapphire Stakes when he was a heavily backed favorite ($1.50) ?
The subsequent winner of the Blue Sapphire is a $8 chance in this, but I tend to think he would of got his ass whooped by this horse had he not been scratched at the gates!??.
I think he looks ridiculous overs at the current $13 quote and I expect that price to firm right up race day.
He is the forgotten horse in this and I want to be on him.
Speaking of 'Forgotten' talents... #4 LOFTY STRIKE ($21) looks well over the odds also.....
He was arguably the countries best 2YO last season and without doubt, would of given the Blue Diamond one hell of a shake had he been given the opportunity to run in it...
I thought his run first up behind GRAND IMPACT was the run of the race/day!
He clearly wasn't screwed down for that assignment, yet still sat back and wide punching the breeze throughout, before sprinting quickly and just peaking on his run at the 150m.
It was a cracking pipe opener first up off a long break and I'm also sure he didn't quite handle the very wet conditiins he was presented with while 75% screwed down.
He's already a winner down the straight this guy in brilliant fashion, and the improvement he showed last campaign from his first up run too his 2nd up run was a big spike!!
He thrashed the subsequent Diamond winner (DAUMIER) 2nd up last time in.
Providing the track isn't a total shit show come this time of the day, then he is impossible to ignore and I want to be saving on him each way at the big odds also.. He CAN win!!
🔮To view BUENOS NOCHES last start closing 2nd behind GIGA KICK,click on the link below.
🏆 RACE 7- G1- VICTORIA DERBY 🏆
⭐#2 BERKELEY SQUARE win ($3.2)
⭐#1 SHARP N SMART ($3.4)
I'm hardly going out on a limb here, but I do think the top 2 in the market are the clear class in this..... I found it hard to even split them.
#2 BERKELEY SQUARE ($3.2) is just a proper 3YO, who continues to improve, each and every time he goes to the races..
He's so honest and possesses a key weapon in his arsenal that some of these young stayers don't and never will have.. AND that's a booming turn of foot, when allowed to build through his gears..
Flemington and it's big wide open spaces just look ideal for him to wind up, avoid speed bumps, and roll over the top of them and win this..
With that being said, it's hard to ignore the smart Sydney 3YO- #1 SHARP N SMART ($3.4).. He's very well named, I'll give them that!
He really stamped himself as a quality animal last start in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes, when mowing down another smart 3YO in ELLIPTICAL, who arguably should of won the Caulfield Guineas the start before..
Graeme Rogerson is certainly no stranger at finding a good Derby type, and I have no doubt he will run out the 2500m strongly!!
The Goldolphin runner #5 PERICLES ($8) is the clear 3rd pick in the race for mine and the stable have been quite bullish and open this week about there 3YOs chances!
🌐RACE 8- G1, EMPIRE ROSE, 1600m🌐
⭐#14 LA CRIQUE win ($2.3)
Well, if you haven't already been tipped this thing by every man and his dog, where have you been!??
Gee wizzz , I can't remember a horse from NZ since SUNLINE that's crossed the Tasman where a bigger wrap has been slapped on one !!! 😳😨...
With all that hype aside, she does look very smart this girl and regardless of her opposition in NZ, it doesn't take a 'Deane Lester' of the world to realise she has got some real X-Factor about her this one....
Since markets first opened, they just can't stop backing her either...
AND at this rate, if she starts around $1.6-$1.8 come race time, I certainly won't be overly shocked.
The Sydney mare #4 KIKU ($26) looks the overs in the race for mine.
While I do think she is a far better mare on top of the ground, she isn't a complete duffer on wet surfaces and she does boast very good form around class gallopers like SNAPDANCER & MR MOZART.
🌐 RACE 9- BELLE STAKES , 1100m 🌐
⭐#2 ASFOORA win ($3)
⭐#4 BELLUCI BABE ew ($31)
Hard to go past this bonny little mare #2 ASFOORA ($3)... She's a little star!!
She should be undefeated this prep, if not for a total brain fade 2nd up by the hoop at Mooney Valley.
Last start, with half a steer, she proved why she is an exciting sprinter in very good form this prep.
When asked to let down, she explodes this little girl with a turn of foot that wouldn't look out of place againt G1 sprinters.
With even luck in running, she's the one they ALL have to hold out late here!
#4 BELLUCI BABE ($31) is the big overs in the race and one I want to be saving on each way at a big price....
She is a mare that usually comes to hand very quickly, with a brilliant fresh record.
A wet track certainly won't ruin her winning chances either, where as at least half this field will be disadvantaged.
I love catching #8 NAJMATY ($13) when they target him at a race fresh... He is lethal first up horse this bloke....
But if this track is on the worse side of a Slow 7, I highly doubt the stable will waste there main bullet with him first up in conditions he just doesn't go on...
Thankfully the Bussetins don't train her. This stable are much more savvy than that.
Good Luck!!! 🥷👊