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Jig previews this weekends Australian thoroughbred races at Caulfield, Gawler & Gold Coast and gives his best bets.
Small field of only 6 x 2YO's to get the meeting started over 1000m. ALL on debut! 3x Colts and 3x Fillies...
I've narrowed it down to 3 key players in the race, and each of those 3 chances have positive and negatives on there side.. (Aka- making it near impossible to split them.. )
So let's run through why.....
#4 PHILOSOPHER ($2) has jumped out very nicely and has a noted "spruik" on him.. Damien Oliver also rides which is also a positive, along with drawing gate 2 where he should get all the favors....
🔻The "Negatives"- Stable have a "Horrific" record with debutantes and horses "First up" in general.. They are NEVER ready... EVER.!
#6 BONHUER ($4) is very well bred and has also jumped out super. She looks a nice filly and also draws ideally in 3 here. She looks the likely leader in the race and there is no doubting whatsoever that she will be rock hard fit in this camp..
🔻The "Negatives"- If it was 'ANY' other stable, she would be a clear on top selection from the jump outs.. BUT how can you possibly trust the 'BUSTED & YOUNG' Stable/Trial form ? They're rubbish..
They consistently cook well bred young talent, week in, week out at the trials... They are Jump out heros, that can't pick there feet up race day! Fact. 😨...
The stable CANNOT improve a horse either, so it's hard to envisage this filly being more impressive at the races??
It beggars belief how the punting world isn't awake to it this camp yet... #Justsayin.
#8 JEWELLERY ($5) is a nice moving, athletic filly from a stable that actually 'Can' improve them and has a real handle on there 2YO talent..
She is still quite new this filly, but I think drawing outside of them all here will be an advantage for her as she can watch the pace unfold, keep out of trouble, then work through her gears and pounce late if she's good enough!
🔻The "Negatives" - Lightly framed girl, who although looks to have loads of talent, may need the run and education of this and be better for it...??
Take ya pick!!!
Nice 3YO fillies race over the 1400m.
I'm a tad surprised the Ciaron Maher trained #1 LAVISH GIRL ($5) is at a very backable each way quote.!?
She has just improved each and every run this girl and she was very strong through the line last start when keeping #2 LUNA CAT ($6) easily at bay.... She draws a lovely gate in 3 and can win again here.
Not much between #5 RIOYUKI ($4.2), #6 SOENEE ($5.5) & #7 THRONTARI ($20) who are all fillies I have time for in what's a very open race.
Benchmark 70 over 1100m.
Remarkable to think that #5 MARINE ONE ($3.5) is still eligible for B70. It's a shame he drew gate 15, as a low draw would of made him near unbeatable.!?
He's one failure this campaign has been in the G1 Coolmore against the best 3YO's in the land and outside of that, he's more or less toyed with his opposition..
If he can find some cover in running, just off the pace (In The Boat could break the field up early), then I envisage him repeating the dose again here and is a horse still on the upward spiral (now that he's with a camp that can actually train!).
#2 IN THE BOAT ($3.8) is in very good form and puts himself out of trouble by leading in his races and sustaining a run from 600m out.. But I'm happy to take him on in this and is massive unders for mine!? 😨
From gate 20, they have no other option than using him up early in this which is a bit of a concern, especially with a 'fair' apprentice on top..
#9 WILMOT PASS ($13), #19 TAX FREE PROPHET ($23) , #8 RIGEL STAR ($18) & #13 D'JUMBUCK ($35) are the 'knockout' chances in the race that may just get the race run to suit if ridden patiently!?.
All 4 are good enough to figure in the finish, especially if the tempo up front is hectic (which I envisage).
Benchmark 100 over 2000m.
There has been some VERY strong support for the Richie Laming trained 'grey' here #9 EXCELMAN ($12 into $4.8 already 😳) ...
He was heavily heavily backed first up in the Grey's race and got the chocolates and just recently trialled very nicely with two stablemates (The Sydney way of going)...
He is also extremely well weighted in this with only 51kgs after the J.Richards claim meaning he will get 9kgs off #2 DARK DREAM ($5.5) and 7kgs off horses like #4 HOLBIEN ($5), #7 STARCASTER ($4.2) & #6 HO HO KHAN ($8).....!!!! It's a big swing in EXCELMAN favor!!
#4 HOLBIEN is rock hard fit now and once he finds this type of form, he generally holds it... He's a tough bastard to get past!!
#2 DARK DREAM is the class in the race and slowly but surely getting back to a shadow of his former self!!! If he's improved again, then hel certainly be in the finish again!
Benchmark 84 over 1100m.
Great/Wide open race this!!
I've been waiting a couple of weeks for #10 GINGER JONES ($17) at big odds to appear first up.
He is very good fresh horse this bloke and his most recent jump out suggests he's here to run a very cheeky race at odds!
He draws nicely in 7, and should be able to sit 2-3 pairs back doing no early work off a likely hot tempo set by #2 GRANDVIEW AVENUE (Gate 2) and other likeky pace influences in #11 YULONG COMMAND (Gate 1) and #16 WITCHFULTHINKING ( Gate 17).
The biggest threat to Ginger Jones chances, certainly looks #9 IT'SOURTIME ($3.8, Gate 3) who is flying this time in and was just nosed out last time by (Not Be Mist, who has since ran well in better grade)...
While the straight track at Flemington is his 'hitting zone', he's Caulfield stats are also good. He's the one to beat.
#15 SCORCHED EARTH ($3.9) returned in brilliant style first up (Bless her sole 😁) and Oliver sticks here.. While she does draw a sticky gate in 14, there looks to be very good speed here and she can drift back in running and have the last shot at them late!!!
She just might be a much improved horse this time in and I want to save on her each way in the race!
#13 CALYPSO REIGN ($11) is a D.Jolly raider coming across the border from SA.
He's last run was good behind a nice horse in Outlaws Revenge and it would be silly to ignore the stables statistics when bringing them across..
He will camp just off the speed midfield and be strong late. A must for quaddies the grey.
Knock out chances to #14 CANT BE DONE ($23), #1 DEFIANT DANCER ($16), #8 EXETER ($34) & #17 EVENING GLORY ($13)
Back #8 HEYINGTON STATION ($5) & #9 PERSEIDS ($5.5) both each way in this...
Both horses were entered for stronger races at Caulfield Saturday where I thought they had sneaky each way chances at odds.. Both stay in Adelaide for this much softer option.
Like the 2YO colt #8 HELL I AM ($3.8) as a horse. He was very good in the Wyong MM race, when arguably unlucky behind 'Soaring Ambition' who has since ran very well in Brisbane last week!
We were with the Danny O'Brien trained #1 STUPENDO ($3.7) on debut (Bless him 🤗) when he won a handy race on debut beating the Goldolphin stable mates in 'Kin & Va Via"...
That pair of Goldolphin horses have since ran well again in decent grade, but I'm just not sure it's the "deepest" 2YO form we will see evenuate in the coming weeks!!??
#3 SWISS EXILE ($2.8) is a colt I have plenty of time for, but I don't think we will see the best of this horse until he's a 3YO... AND a "Gelding"!!!
Happy to be with #8 HELL I AM in this though each way, more so the place at around ($1.5- 1.6 mark) where he looks a good player for the 'place multi punters'.
Caul R3 no1 LAVISH GIRL ew ($5)
Caul R8 no10 GINGER JONES ew ($17)
Caul R8 no15 SCORCHED EARTH ew ($4)
Adel R6 no8 HEYINGTON STATION ew ($5)
Adel R6 no9 PERSEIDS ew ($5.5)
GC R3 no8 HELL I AM ew ($3.8)
Good Luck!! 🥷👊
