🏆 MELBOURNE CUP DAY 🏆
#JIGRACING #CUPDAY #FLEMINGTON #THEDAY #TOPSPORT #PIRANHAMEDIA #WETTRACK #MUDLARKS #THERACETHATSTOPSTHENATION #LESSGOH 🇦🇺🏆🥷👊
🟥🟧 RACE 1- MARIBYRNONG PLATE 🟧🟥
Always an interesting race for the 2YO's up the Flemington straight over 1000m.
GOLDOLPHIN look to have a very good hand in this with #1 ZULFIQAR ($3.4) & #3 DIABELLI ($4.6)...
#1 ZULFIQAR won well on debut in the MARIBYRNONG trial, and reeled over the quickest last 200m of the entire meeting...!!
Interestingly enough both of these Goldolphin horses jumped out together recently at Flemington and while there was nothing between them, I thought #3 DIABELLI piece of work was as good, if not better than #1 ZULFIQAR..
The other youngsters who have jumped out well and are worth entertaining and definite winning hopes in the race are..
The Price filly #9 AWESTRUCK ($7.5- M.ZAHRA)..
Pacey little filly and I like the way she found a gear in recent jump out, before being idled down late and collared by a nice young one in CHARM STONE. AWESTRUCK could of won the jump out easily.
#5 HELLSHISH ($7.5- Big strong looking colt from Danny O'Brien stable).... He looks a type that will be a better 3YO in time, but a big run here on debut won't shock.
Stable unearthed a very good one last Friday night in KING COUVER. You'd have to think this guy has shown as much at the jump outs as he did prior to debutig.
#4 EXOPOSITION - ($7.5- Waller/JMac-Sydney-sider, all positives)...
Jumped out quite well in Sydney and a tad hard to get a real guide on it, but if you want to doubt the stable/jockey combination alone, well you probably need to go and have a lie down.
🔮To view Goldolphin stablemates ZULFIQAR (inside) & DIABELLI (outside ) recent jump out at Flemington, click on the link below.
🔮To view #9 AWESTRUCK recent 2nd in a 800m jump out at Cranbourne behind CHARMSTONE, click on the link below.
🟥🟧 RACE 2- B96- 2800m 🟧🟥
⭐#7 WHITE MARLIN*** ($2.2)
If the putrid weather they are predicting has already hit Melbourne and we are doing form around a Heavy track, then get your pennies ready for an early fill up on Cup Day! 🐟💰
This big grey, European import - #7 WHITE MARLIN will deadset 'Moon walk' his way into the parade ring with a grin from ear to ear...
Last start when the skies well and truly opened at Caulfield, this very progressive/promising stayer, threw the flippers on powered through the ground.
On that occasion he bashed up the 2nd placed horse (KEATS) who himself is in career best form and subsequently won a $100K race by 3.5 lens on sunday in dominant fashion!
While taking anything Gai Waterhouse says or talks up with pinch of salt is a well known fact, I tend to nearly half agree with her assessment on this one.
He will love Flemington this horse. AND he should win.
🔮To view WHITE MARLIN last start victory at Caulfield on a bog track, click on the link below.
🟧🟥 RACE 3- BM90, GREYS RACE 🟧🟥
⭐#6 CRIMINAL CODE ew ($6)
⭐#4 ASCENSION ($4.5)
⭐#8 EXCELMAN ($13)
It'd be rude not to mention or go over the 'funnest' race of the day... The GREYS race 😁...
We all love a good Grey and the Grey's more often than not adore wet tracks!
Loved the recent jump out of #6 CRIMINAL CODE ($6)... He looked very sharp!
While he's a horse more noted for doing his best work over further trips, I'd say this has been a target race for some time from the stable.
He's had two nice jump outs in prep for this, he handles wet ground and he more often than not, sprints well fresh!!!
Waller/McDonald combo again. There's a lot to like about him.
#4 ASCENSION ($4.5) finally found his mojo last start, when winning impressively on a Heavy 8 surface.
This horse has always been well respected by the stable. Be surprised if he doesn't back up that last start performance on similar ground here.
#8 EXCELMAN ($12) won this race last year first up and comes into this race off an identical lead up...
He jumped out like a rocket prior to that first up win in this year and his recent jump out, was uncannily much the same!! He went jumped out very impressively! 😳
A Heavy track is the big concern... He handles soft going, but yet to be proven on a Heavy track...
Impossible to ignore his recent jump out though and first up record.
#2 NOT TO BE MIST ($23) is going better than his form may suggest and clearly his entire prep has been aimed at this race..
A Heavy surface is his biggest hurdle... But he's the best roughie in the race for mine.
🔮To view CRIMINAL CODE recent jump out victory, click on the link below.
🔮To view EXCELMAN impressive recent jump out win, click on the link below.
🟧🟥 RACE 4- 1800m, 3YO's 🟧🟥
⭐#12 QUANG TRI win ($2.2)
⭐#1 ZOES PROMISE ew ($8)
Looks a nice race for the two fillies here in #12 QUANG TRI & #1 ZOES PROMISE.
Both are tough, reliable on pace fillies who come into this with not only winning form, but both revel on tracks.
ZOES PROMISE has gone to a new level her past two starts and in particular, last start when she knocked off a horse I have a lot of time for in CLIMBING STAR.
Hard to see her not running very well again here.
QUANG TRI wouldn't know how to run a bad race. She's just so honest ... She is rock bottom odds at $2.20 though! 😨
You couldn't rush into her at that quote....She should drift out to at least $3 come race time and I think you could back both fillies here and get a very good run for your money!!
#9 HIGH APPROACH ($23) looks the best roughie in the race. The form from his last two runs has subsequently stood up.
🟧🟥 RACE 6- 1800m-CUP DAY PLATE 🟧🟥
⭐#1 JUST FOLK ew ($5.5)
⭐#14 WHITE NOISE ew ($15)
The big chestnut, #1 JUST FOLK ($5.5) has to give them all a lot of weight in this AND overcome gate 15. It is a concern....
BUT class and a likely Heavy track will take him a long way here.
He's flying (again) this prep and is a horse who is surprisingly still highly underestimated.
Two weeks ago, he carried 59kgs and chased home a genuine Group 1 horse in CASCADIAN in the G3- Craven Plate..
What would CASCADIAN do too this lot!!!! 😳... He would flog these!
Despite the weight, he's the one to beat.
#14 WHITE NOISE ($15) is the value in the race and I'd want to be having a small each way play on him as well.
He gets in very well at the weights, where hel only carry 54kgs and loves rain affected ground.
He should get a nice run midfield here from gate 6 and his run last start in what was a strong edition of the Sale Cup was very good.
He certainly didn't have the best of runs in transit in that race, yet still managed to run home strongly behind a smart one in UNCLE BRYN to run 3rd... He's right in this at a price.
#6 CHARACTER ($9) would be a huge chance in this if the track wasn't rain effected.. He's in good form. Heavy is the concern. He's a much better horse on top of the ground, Soft 7 max. Any worse- NO.
🏆 G1- MELBOURNE CUP, 3200M 🏆
The race that STOPS the nation... Here's my Top 6 hopes in the race and why....
⭐#8 DEAUVILLE LEGEND win ($3.6)
⭐#6 WITHOUT A FIGHT ($11)
⭐#10 VOW AND DECLARE ($26)
⭐#1 GOLD TRIP ($15)
⭐#9 STOCKMAN ($31)
⭐#16 ARAPAHO ($71)
With the likelihood of this year's Cup being run on a Heavy surface, it really has made it a near lottery if the favorite doesn't handle it. 😨
The young import - #8 DEAUVILLE LEGEND ($3.6) is the clear class in the race and brings very good overseas form...
DEAUVILLE LEGEND thrashed EL BODEGON last start overseas.
Do yourself a favor and watch his last start and you'll quickly appreciate how good this bloke really is. He's better than these.
EL BODEGON has more than franked that form here in Australia. More than Franked!!
He was huge in the Cox Plate behind, when 3rd behind our countries two best WFA horses in ANAMOE and I'M THUNDERSTRUCK.
The BIG and ONLY query with him winning this race on his ear, is the unknown if he handles a Heavy surface.. If he does and brings anywhere near his best, hel beat our countries B-Grade stayers.
Outside of DEAUVILLE LEGEND, it's a wide open race...
Throw in the fact that many are unlikely to get through the ground (particularly over 3200m) then the likelihood of a blow out result isn't unrealistic.
#6 WITHOUT A FIGHT ($11) is the other International in the race, I want to be saving on, on a each way line. It'll be no blowout or surprise if he wins!
He brings very good form from overseas and most importantly, handles wet surfaces.
He doesn't draw ideally in 18, but with a world class jockey in William Buick on board, he will endeavor to give him an economical run early, relying on him being very strong late... Something these Europeans are trained to do from day one.
One horse who will revel in the conditions if it gets ugly is - #9 STOCKMAN ($31).. He adores it actually.
We don't have to look too far down through his past runs, too see him running a terrific 2nd in the G1 METROPOLITAN over 2400m in Sydney on a Heavy 8 surface.
While he lacks the class of many of these, his wet track form is impossible to ignore now and gives him a flukers chance in the race.
#10 VOW AND DECLARE ($26) will be praying for a Soft 6 -7 track.
This old boy is deadset flying this preparation and is going as good, if not better in his lead up runs this year as he did when he won this race in 2019.
I loved his run last start in the Caulfield Cup. He was HUGE!
He drew Barrier 16 on that occasion and was forced to settle 3-4 wide the trip throughout. He had a torrid run.
For him to still be working home out wide strongly late on, as good as anything in the race, was an indication that he's going as good as ever, and a lovely Melb Cup lead up run!
If the track isn't a mud pit come Race 7, then he goes in everything the 7YO and VERY worthy of an each way bet at big odds ($26).
#16 ARAPAHO ($71) is the other mudlark at big odds in the race and rightly so, I'm reluctant to leave him out of any longer/wider exotic type thoughts if you like those type of bets.
He draws 19, has an average hoop in the irons and lacks the class of most of these, but if I'm giving STOCKMAN a flukers chance in the race, then he has to go in as well.
While STOCKMAN is also only a rough chance at best in the race and does meet ARAPAHO- 2kgs better at the weights from there Metropolitan runs where he beat him.
#1 GOLD TRIP ($15) is set a big task having to carry 57kgs and give them all weight. BUT he is proven weight carrier...
The wet track is also no concern, he has the right man in the saddle and I hope he wins the race.
His run in the Cox Plate was huge... (On a Heavy 8, 59kgs).. He was given NO hope in the run... Like NONE! He is a must for Quaddies, Trifectas, First 4's etc.
🟧🟥 RACE 8- BM90, 1400m 🟧🟥
⭐#13 DETONATOR JACK*** ew ($7)
⭐#10 MUNHAMEK ew ($6)
Very keen on the chances of #13 DETONATOR JACK ($7) first up here..
He's a very good horse this one and what he did in first campaign was exceptional.
While he will end up being a lovely Caulfield Cup type horse next year, I wouldn't be writing him off here first up over 1400m.
Especially with only 54kgs on his back... Without puting the mozzer on him, he looks a weighted certainty in this 😳
On debut, over the same trip he showed an electric turn of foot and charged over the top of them, with a real bounce in his step!
He has also jumped out lovely recently, where he looked to be fresh and bouncing for big run here first up!!!
While hes unknown on a Heavy track, he had absolutely no problems on a soft deck last prep and gives every indication he'd pretty much handle anything you throw at him.
He is a horse with a bright future and I think we will get a good reminder of that come R8 on Cup day.
#10 MUNHAMEK ($6) is flying for the Nick Ryan stable since returning from Hong Kong. He looks to be thriving.
The race just wasnt run to suit him last time, yet he still reeled off some big late splits.
Getting onto a track like Flemington, where he can expose his best asset will be very much too his liking.
🟧🟥 RACE 9- HKJC STAKES, 1400m 🟧🟥
⭐#1 PROMISE OF SUCCESS ew ($4.8)
⭐#3 LITERARY MAGNATE ew ($7)
Found it hard to split this pair.. I think you can back both with a bit of confidence.
Both handle wet conditions and both bring very good form into a race of this nature..
#1 PROMISE OF SUCCESS ($4.8) is in very good form and we already know that the Sydney form is well and truly holding up in Melbourne this spring..
While it may look like she doesn't thrive on Heavy ground, the difference between a Heavy deck in Sydney and a Heavy deck at Flemington are two different things.
Sydney is a mud pit... Flemington will present as wet track, but highly unlikely to be anything like the surfaces she's had to deal with in Sydney.
Last start she took care of a couple of handy ones in ELECTRIC GIRL and NIMALEE in a $2M race very impressively.... It would be silly to ignore that fact alone against these.
#3 LITERARY MAGNATE ($7) has always promised and shown well above average ability since day one..
She was brilliant first up when she exploded between them late to win impressively...
She left ZAPATEO in her wake on that occasion and that horse should of won on Derby Day with an ounce of luck...
Drawing 13 and the lack of genuine pace in the race are the two big negatives that she has to overcome.. ???
She will also need a Dean "Baked Bean" Yendall special and that hardly gives me great confidence either.. So there are question marks on her.
Her ability to get through wet ground and possess a lethal turn of foot are two key things that are heavily in her favor though.
Good Luck!!! 🥷👊